An unlikely source has shed light on the extent and duration of job losses from COVID-19.
Through “a combination of time series extrapolations and regression analysis,” the Internal Revenue Service has come up with new projections that indicate how the job market might fare in the next several years. Based on an analysis of the number of W-2 forms filed this year, employee-classified jobs are expected to trail pre-pandemic levels by 38.9 million in 2021, and even in 2027, that shortfall is expected to be about 10 million. While the number of traditional jobs plummets, only 1.6 million more 1099 forms are anticipated next year.
The message in these numbers is clear. What seemed to many at first like a short-term interruption that we could all wait out is likely to be a much more permanent change to America’s employment landscape. If the IRS projections are anywhere close to accurate, these changes have important ramifications for how you should manage your career.
It would be a mistake to assume that these figures mean there is nothing to do or everyone is doomed.
Ten Take-Aways for Planning Your Career Path
- If you have lost your job, there is an increased risk that the job isn’t returning. You should therefore plan accordingly and start looking for new work.
- Don’t assume that no one is hiring or that all jobs are bad. These numbers are aggregates and don’t show the enormous variations.
- If you are unhappy with your job or career—whether or not you were furloughed or laid off—the risks in staying on your present course are increasing. The average quality of jobs has been decreasing for years, and COVID-19 is speeding up that process.
- The number of full-time jobs that pay benefits is decreasing. That doesn’t mean you should panic, but it does mean that you need to be more vigilant and active in managing your career.
- Managing your career more actively starts with being honest with yourself about your current situation. If you aren’t learning new skills that you generally enjoy or improving your network of contacts, you should strongly consider making a change.
- The last thing you want to be is just a cog in the wheel where you have little or no say in what happens to you at work. The more anonymous you are to your employer, the more likely it is that you won’t have a seat at the table.
- Sometimes, the best way to get a seat at the table is to ask for one from your current employer. Generally, the longer you have been at a place and the more brownie points you have earned there, the more you should consider talking to your employer about making changes to your current arrangement.
- When looking for a new job, be mindful of areas or industries where employees have little bargaining power. When the number of W-2 jobs plummets, it creates downward pressure on wages, but it does so very unevenly. Hotels, restaurants, and retail are three examples of industries that are especially hard hit right now.
- Don’t assume that you need more education, especially a degree or a certificate, to change jobs. Education may increase your chances of success, but most of the time, it isn’t a requirement because you only need to find one job.
- The best way to find new jobs is to be able to tap into a network of people. If your network isn’t what it should be, you can take steps to improve it. Isolation is the ultimate enemy. You have options, and you need information to get out of your own head and connect like never before. Your career depends on it now more than ever.
The ten tips and strategies identified above all have one thing in common: they are directed to you as an individual. For many years, that was enough. And how active and consistent you are in looking for a new job is still a huge factor in determining the extent to which you will succeed. Like many things in life, effort matters a lot.
But it is also clear that changing how the economy works and improving the quality of jobs requires certain elements of collective action. This isn’t just true for blue-collar workers. The process of degrading relatively secure jobs, such as IT and even medicine, is long underway. Issues related to healthcare, minimum wages, and a host of other aspects of the world of work involve changes of law and policy. If we want the economy to work for more people and their families, we need to make changes that go beyond what one person can do. And collective action includes voting, especially in local elections.
In this context, collective action doesn’t have a partisan political agenda. Unionizing is just one aspect of potentially modernizing the world of work. It also includes changing laws and regulations and educating people. When highly educated people are put in the position of training their replacements and some employers are already using technology to track remote workers’ movements in their own homes, it is a mistake to think that the trends impacting jobs are either Democratic or Republican, left- or right-wing.
The latest jobs reports contribute to what was already a somewhat bleak picture. But all is not lost. That is why we will persist in publicly discussing these issues and frankly being somewhat of a pain in the ass about it. This is no time to be complacent. And if you are considering a job or career change, we stand ready to help.
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